Development of a framework for power system operational risk assessment using probabilistic power flow with SCADA data

Tóm tắt

High penetration of renewable energy poses significant challenges to power system operational security. This paper presents the development of a comprehensive framework for operational risk assessment using a data-driven Probabilistic Power Flow (PPF) approach. The proposed framework automatically identifies the best-fit probability distributions for loads and generation sources, constructs a cluster-based correlation model, and quantifies risks via an enhanced Monte Carlo simulation using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The framework's effectiveness is validated through a case study on the Vietnamese Central Power System. Results demonstrate that the methodology accurately quantifies operational risks, highlighting the critical importance of correlation modeling. This framework provides a powerful and widely applicable tool to support secure grid operation and planning.