Future hydroclimatic variability in the Vu Gia Thu Bon River basin derived from high-resolution CMIP6-VN projections

https://doi.org/10.31130/ud-jst.2026.24(7B).584E

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Author

  • Binh Quang Nguyen
    The University of Danang - University of Science and Technology, Danang, Vietnam
    Thanh-Nhan-Duc Tran
    Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA
    Sameh A. Kantoush
    Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan

Từ khóa:

Climate change
CMIP6-VN
Downscale
Vu Gia Thu Bon River basin

Tóm tắt

Heavy rainfall across Central Vietnam in 2025 highlights the increasing intensity of extreme precipitation and the need for reliable regional climate projections. Although CMIP6 global climate models have improved climate simulations, their coarse spatial resolution limits basin-scale applications. This study uses high-resolution (10km) downscaled CMIP6-VN projections from 19 CMIP6 models to assess future rainfall, temperature, and hydrological changes in the Vu Gia Thu Bon River basin during 1985–2099 under four SSP scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5). Mean annual precipitation is projected to increase under all scenarios, reaching up to 6.7% above the historical baseline (1985–2014). Although rainfall and flood-season runoff increase, streamflow responses are substantially moderated by reservoir regulation, emphasizing the critical role of reservoir operations in future water management. These findings demonstrate the value of high-resolution climate projections for reducing uncertainty in hydrological impact assessments and supporting climate adaptation and water resources planning in regulated river basin.

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Jul 31, 2026
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Nguyen, B. Q., T.-N.-D. Tran, và S. A. Kantoush. “Future Hydroclimatic Variability in the Vu Gia Thu Bon River Basin Derived from High-Resolution CMIP6-VN Projections”. Tạp Chí Khoa học Và Công nghệ Đại học Đà Nẵng, vol 24, số p.h 7B, Tháng Bảy 2026, tr 77-83, doi:10.31130/ud-jst.2026.24(7B).584E.

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