Examining the relationship between exports and CO2 emissions in Vietnam

https://doi.org/10.31130/ud-jst.2025.23(8A).199E

Abstract: 153 | PDF: 109

##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.main##

Author

  • Nguyen Tan Danh
    The University of Danang – University of Economics, Vietnam

Keywords:

CO2 emissions
EKC theory
Exports
Sustainable Development
SDGs

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between exports and CO2 emissions in Vietnam from 1990 to 2022 using time-series data and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Results indicate that, GDP growth significantly increases CO2 emissions, while no evidence supports the Environmental Kuznets Curve in the Vietnamese context. Sectoral impacts vary: textile exports are associated with higher emissions, whereas agricultural and forestry exports contribute to emission reduction. Short- and long-run effects differ across sectors, with the ECM term indicating rapid adjustment to long-run equilibrium after short-term shocks. These findings suggest policy directions for sustainable development, including promoting green technology adoption in high-emission export sectors and supporting agriculture and forestry to ensure that export-led growth aligns with climate change mitigation goals.

References

    [1] N. T. V. Anh, H. T. Tung, and V. T. Hien, "The impact of exports on economic growth in Vietnam", Journal of Economics and Business, vol. 3, no. 4, 2020.
    [2] L. S. Lau, K. J. Yii, C. F. Ng, Y. L. Tan, and T. H. Yiew, "Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis: A bibliometric review of the last three decades", Energy & Environment, vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 93-131, 2025.
    [3] D. Kaika and E. Zervas, "The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory - part A: concept, causes and the CO2 emissions case", Energy Policy, vol. 62, pp. 1392-1402, 2013.
    [4] S. A. Sarkodie and V. Strezov, "Effect of foreign direct investments, economic development and energy consumption on greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries", Science of the Total Environment, vol. 646, pp. 862-871, 2019.
    [5] H. Dkhili, "Investigating the theory of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in MENA countries", Journal of the Knowledge Economy, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 2266-2283, 2023, doi: 10.1007/s13132-022-00976-1.
    [6] H. Liu, H. Kim, S. Liang, and O. S. Kwon, "Export diversification and ecological footprint: a comparative study on EKC theory among Korea, Japan, and China", Sustainability, vol. 10, no. 10, p. 3657, 2018.
    [7] E. Dogan and R. Inglesi-Lotz, "The impact of economic structure to the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis: evidence from European countries", Environmental Science and Pollution Research, vol. 27, pp. 12717-12724, 2020.
    [8] A. Rauf, X. Liu, W. Amin, I. Ozturk, O. U. Rehman, and M. Hafeez, "Testing EKC hypothesis with energy and sustainable development challenges: a fresh evidence from belt and road initiative economies", Environmental Science and Pollution Research, vol. 25, pp. 32066-32080, 2018.
    [9] F. Doni, A. Gasperini, and J. T. Soares, SDG13–Climate Action: combating climate change and its impacts. Emerald Publishing Limited, 2020.
    [10] M. Salman, X. Long, L. Dauda, C. N. Mensah, and S. Muhammad, "Different impacts of export and import on carbon emissions across 7 ASEAN countries: a panel quantile regression approach", Science of the Total Environment, vol. 686, pp. 1019-1029, 2019.
    [11] B. Lin and Z. Zhang, "Carbon emissions in China׳ s cement industry: A sector and policy analysis", Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 58, pp. 1387-1394, 2016.
    [12] M. A. Cole, R. J. Elliott, T. Okubo, and L. Zhang, "Importing, outsourcing and pollution offshoring", Energy Economics, vol. 103, p. 105562, 2021.
    [13] Y. Meng, H. Wu, Y. Wang, and Y. Duan, "International trade diversification, green innovation, and consumption-based carbon emissions: the role of renewable energy for sustainable development in BRICST countries", Renewable Energy, vol. 198, pp. 1243-1253, 2022.
    [14] M. Bui Duc and L. Wang, "Strategic pathways to Net Zero by 2050: Vietnam's adoption of South Korea's policies", in International Conference on Human-Computer Interaction. Springer, 2024, pp. 197-209.
    [15] M. Rutten, M. Van Dijk, W. Van Rooij, and H. Hilderink, "Land use dynamics, climate change, and food security in Vietnam: a global-to-local modeling approach", World Development, vol. 59, pp. 29-46, 2014.
    [16] H. V. Su, "Policies to promote goods export in association with sustainable development requirements in Vietnam today", Journal of Economics and Development, vol. 218, pp. 20-27, 2012.
    [17] B. M. Trinh, "The challenges in the global fashion industry and the need to shift toward sustainability", DTU Journal of Science and Technology, vol. 56, no. 1, pp. 102-112, 2023.
    [18] H. T. Nguyen et al., "The nexus between greenhouse gases, economic growth, energy and trade openness in Vietnam", Environmental Technology & Innovation, vol. 28, p. 102912, 2022.
    [19] K. R. Dhungel, "Estimation of short and long run equilibrium coefficients in error correction model: an empirical evidence from Nepal", International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management, vol. 2, no. 6, pp. 214-219, 2014.
    [20] D. A. Dickey and W. A. Fuller, "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root", Econometrica, vol. 49, no. 4, pp. 1057-1072, 1981.
    [21] H. Akaike, "A new look at the statistical model identification", IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, vol. 19, no. 6, pp. 716-723, 1974, doi: 10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705.
    [22] S. I. Vrieze, "Model selection and psychological theory: a discussion of the differences between the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)", Psychological Methods, vol. 17, no. 2, p. 228, 2012.
    [23] M. H. Pesaran, Y. Shin, and R. J. Smith, "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships", Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 289-326, 2001.
    [24] D. Ansari and F. Holz, "Between stranded assets and green transformation: fossil-fuel-producing developing countries towards 2055", World Development, vol. 130, p. 104947, 2020.
    [25] H. Mahmood and N. Saqib, "Oil rents, economic growth, and CO2 emissions in 13 OPEC member economies: asymmetry analyses", Frontiers in Environmental Science, vol. 10, p. 1025756, 2022.
    [26] G. P. Peters, J. C. Minx, C. L. Weber, and O. Edenhofer, "Growth in emission transfers via international trade from 1990 to 2008", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 108, no. 21, pp. 8903-8908, 2011.
    [27] A. Omri, S. Daly, C. Rault, and A. Chaibi, "Financial development, environmental quality, trade and economic growth: What causes what in MENA countries", Energy Economics, vol. 48, pp. 242-252, 2015.
    [28] H. L. Nguyen, "Energy transition trends and response solutions of Vietnam Oil and Gas Group", Petrovietnam Journal, vol. 2, pp. 4-20, 2024.
    [29] L. P. Thanh, "Carbon-neutral agriculture: some theoretical and practical issues in Vietnam", Journal of Economics and Development, vol. 318, no. 2, pp. 11-19, 2023.
    [30] J. H. Kim, "Multicollinearity and misleading statistical results", Korean Journal of Anesthesiology, vol. 72, no. 6, pp. 558-569, 2019.
    [31] G. James, D. Witten, T. Hastie, and R. Tibshirani, An introduction to statistical learning. Springer, 2013.
Read more

##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.sidebar##

Published

Aug 31, 2025
Download
PDF
How to Cite
Danh, N. T. “Examining the Relationship Between Exports and CO2 Emissions in Vietnam”. The University of Danang - Journal of Science and Technology, vol. 23, no. 8A, Aug. 2025, pp. 28-34, doi:10.31130/ud-jst.2025.23(8A).199E.

##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.details##