A GIS-based cholera forecast model

Tóm tắt

The spread of infectious diseases has a close relationship with temporal and spatial localities because it is more likely to occur if individuals are in near disease sources in terms of specific space and time. Therefore, it is important to take both temporal and spatial factors in the epidemic data analysis. The basic principle is to examine the dependent relationship among observations on both space and time dimensions. In order to meet these requirements, Geographic Information System (GIS) has the advantage over traditional non-space methods. GIS can be used to determine the location and create the map of disease cases. It can also be used for researching causes of disease outbreaks and for simulating and forecasting the disease spread. This paper proposes a GIS-based cholera forecast model for Hanoi city, which took into consideration the impact of the city’s climate changes. Experimental results show that GIS can be effectively used for the cholera epidemic analysis of the research area. The research points out hot spots of cholera disease as well as it well explains the relationship between spatial distribution variables, including climate, water area and population, and the temporal distribution variable of the cholera case number.